Goalysis
2026-10-16

Football Analysis – 2026-10-16

Daily football match analysis for 2026-10-16 with signal scores and risk flags.

Introduction

Football match analysis for 2026-10-16 using Goalysis signals. Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.

Top Matches Today (4)

Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
Strong SignalGeneral Analysis
BL1·2026-10-16·High Alignment: 80/100
Recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L. 1. FC Köln form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L.
Home goals (last 5): 0, 2, 3, 1, 3 · Away goals (last 5): 2, 1, 1, 1, 3
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 3 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 4 of those games. 1. FC Köln show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 5/5.
Why
Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record is less reliable. Both teams frequently exceed the goal threshold. Data points converge clearly across all measured sources. This creates strong alignment across the available data.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → 1. FC Köln stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Form, head-to-head, and goal trends converge on a consistent reading.
Key insight
Form and head-to-head data both support 1. FC Köln
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs Paris Saint-Germain FC
Strong SignalGeneral Analysis
FL1·2026-10-17·High Alignment: 77/100Tomorrow
Recent form
RC Strasbourg Alsace form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L. Paris Saint-Germain FC form (last 5): 5W-0D-0L.
Home goals (last 5): 1, 1, 1, 6, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 4, 3, 2, 1, 6
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between RC Strasbourg Alsace and Paris Saint-Germain FC, 5 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 5 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
RC Strasbourg Alsace have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 5 of those games. Paris Saint-Germain FC show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 4/5.
Why
Paris Saint-Germain FC outperform RC Strasbourg Alsace in recent results. Paris Saint-Germain FC produce more attacking output per match. RC Strasbourg Alsace allow more goals per match on average. Goal-heavy fixtures are common for both teams. The available signals align consistently, supporting a high alignment score. This confirms high confidence in the observed pattern.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Paris Saint-Germain FC stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Multiple independent sources confirm the same direction.
Key insight
Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Strong SignalGeneral Analysis
BL1·2026-10-17·High Alignment: 75/100Tomorrow
Recent form
Hamburger SV form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L. VfB Stuttgart form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L.
Home goals (last 5): 3, 2, 0, 0, 0 · Away goals (last 5): 3, 2, 0, 1, 3
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart, 2 of the last 2 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 1 of the last 2 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Hamburger SV have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. VfB Stuttgart show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 2/5.
Why
VfB Stuttgart show stronger recent form than Hamburger SV. VfB Stuttgart generate stronger attacking returns. Hamburger SV's defensive record is less reliable. Data points converge clearly across all measured sources. This creates strong alignment across the available data.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → VfB Stuttgart stronger
H2H signal → no dominant pattern, but overall alignment remains consistent
Goal trends → support the signal
Form, head-to-head, and goal trends converge on a consistent reading.
Key insight
VfB Stuttgart's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates
SC Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior
Strong SignalGeneral Analysis
DED·2026-10-16·High Alignment: 70/100
Recent form
SC Heerenveen form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L. SBV Excelsior form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L.
Home goals (last 5): 0, 4, 0, 2, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 2, 1, 2, 3
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between SC Heerenveen and SBV Excelsior, 4 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
SC Heerenveen have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. SBV Excelsior show 5/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 4/5.
Why
SBV Excelsior concede at a higher rate. Multiple independent indicators reinforce the same reading. This produces a reliable and consistent reading.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → balanced between teams
H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Signals align consistently, resulting in high alignment.
Key insight
Past meetings and current form both indicate above-threshold goal output

Moderate Signal Matches (5)

Frosinone Calcio vs US Sassuolo Calcio
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
SA·2026-10-16·Moderate Alignment: 67/100
Form: Frosinone Calcio: 3W-1D-1L | US Sassuolo Calcio: 2W-2D-1L
H2H: 1 of last 2 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 2 BTTS
Goals: Frosinone Calcio: 3/5 over 2.5 | US Sassuolo Calcio: 4/5 over 2.5
Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This creates only moderate alignment.
Strong form from Frosinone Calcio pairs with above-average goal production
1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
BL1·2026-10-17·Moderate Alignment: 63/100Tomorrow
Form: 1. FC Union Berlin: 1W-1D-3L | Borussia Dortmund: 3W-1D-1L
H2H: 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 5 BTTS
Goals: 1. FC Union Berlin: 4/5 over 2.5 | Borussia Dortmund: 3/5 over 2.5
Borussia Dortmund outperform 1. FC Union Berlin in recent results. Borussia Dortmund produce more attacking output per match. 1. FC Union Berlin allow more goals per match on average. Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This creates only moderate alignment.
Borussia Dortmund's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
Villarreal CF vs Elche CF
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-10-17·Moderate Alignment: 63/100Tomorrow
Form: Villarreal CF: 3W-0D-2L | Elche CF: 1W-2D-2L
H2H: 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 3 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Villarreal CF: 4/5 over 2.5 | Elche CF: 3/5 over 2.5
Villarreal CF outperform Elche CF in recent results. Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This creates only moderate alignment.
Villarreal CF's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Club Atlético de Madrid
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-10-17·Moderate Alignment: 60/100Tomorrow
Form: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: 1W-2D-2L | Club Atlético de Madrid: 5W-0D-0L
H2H: 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 4 of 5 BTTS
Goals: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: 2/5 over 2.5 | Club Atlético de Madrid: 4/5 over 2.5
Club Atlético de Madrid hold a clear form advantage over RCD Espanyol de Barcelona. Club Atlético de Madrid's offensive output is more reliable. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona concede at a higher rate. Data shows mixed alignment across indicators. This means the signal should be treated with moderate confidence.
Club Atlético de Madrid's form advantage is reinforced by historical matchup patterns
Manchester City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
PL·2026-10-17·Moderate Alignment: 57/100Tomorrow
Form: Manchester City FC: 4W-0D-1L | Ipswich Town FC: 2W-0D-3L
H2H: 2 of last 2 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 2 BTTS
Goals: Manchester City FC: 3/5 over 2.5 | Ipswich Town FC: 3/5 over 2.5
Manchester City FC outperform Ipswich Town FC in recent results. Manchester City FC produce more attacking output per match. Ipswich Town FC allow more goals per match on average. Data shows mixed alignment across indicators. This creates only moderate alignment.
Strong form from Manchester City FC pairs with above-average goal production
Low Signal Matches (3)Expand to view

These matches show low reliability signals. Treat with caution.

RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-10-16·Low Alignment: 30/100
Form: RC Deportivo La Coruña: 1W-2D-2L | Levante UD: 1W-2D-2L
Goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña: 2/5 over 2.5 | Levante UD: 4/5 over 2.5
Levante UD's offensive output is more unreliable. Levante UD concede at a higher rate. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This reduces reliability of the signal. Current goal rates are high but head-to-head meetings do not reflect this
Current form and historical data diverge, reducing interpretive confidence
Fulham FC vs Hull City AFC
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
PL·2026-10-17·Low Alignment: 28/100Tomorrow
Form: Fulham FC: 0W-2D-3L | Hull City AFC: 1W-3D-1L
H2H: 0 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 3 BTTS
Goals: Fulham FC: 2/5 over 2.5 | Hull City AFC: 3/5 over 2.5
Hull City AFC show weaker recent form than Fulham FC. Indicators diverge, giving low overall alignment. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight.
Hull City AFC's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates
Venezia FC vs SSC Napoli
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
SA·2026-10-17·Low Alignment: 26/100Tomorrow
Form: Venezia FC: 0W-0D-5L | SSC Napoli: 2W-1D-2L
H2H: 0 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 4 BTTS
Goals: Venezia FC: 3/5 over 2.5 | SSC Napoli: 2/5 over 2.5
SSC Napoli hold a clear form advantage over Venezia FC. Venezia FC concede at a higher rate. Signals do not align consistently, resulting in low alignment. This reduces reliability of the signal.
SSC Napoli's consistency and high goal frequency reinforce each other

How to interpret these signals

Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.