Goalysis
2026-10-11

Football Analysis – 2026-10-11

Daily football match analysis for 2026-10-11 with signal scores and risk flags.

Introduction

Football match analysis for 2026-10-11 using Goalysis signals. Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.

Top Matches Today (3)

FC Utrecht vs Willem II Tilburg
Strong SignalGeneral Analysis
DED·2026-10-11·High Alignment: 77/100
Recent form
FC Utrecht form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L. Willem II Tilburg form (last 5): 0W-2D-3L.
Home goals (last 5): 0, 2, 3, 1, 3 · Away goals (last 5): 0, 1, 1, 0, 2
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between FC Utrecht and Willem II Tilburg, 5 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 4 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
FC Utrecht have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 4 of those games. Willem II Tilburg show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.
Why
FC Utrecht outperform Willem II Tilburg in recent results. FC Utrecht produce more attacking output per match. FC Utrecht allow more goals per match on average. The available signals align consistently, supporting a high alignment score. This confirms high confidence in the observed pattern.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → FC Utrecht stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Multiple independent sources confirm the same direction.
Key insight
FC Utrecht's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Strong SignalGeneral Analysis
BL1·2026-10-11·High Alignment: 77/100
Recent form
1. FC Köln form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Borussia Mönchengladbach form (last 5): 1W-0D-4L.
Home goals (last 5): 1, 1, 1, 3, 1 · Away goals (last 5): 3, 0, 3, 0, 4
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach, 4 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 4 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
1. FC Köln have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 5 of those games. Borussia Mönchengladbach show 5/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 2/5.
Why
Borussia Mönchengladbach's offensive output is more reliable. Both sides regularly produce matches above the goal threshold. Multiple independent indicators reinforce the same reading. This produces a reliable and consistent reading.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → 1. FC Köln stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Signals align consistently, resulting in high alignment.
Key insight
1. FC Köln's form advantage is reinforced by historical matchup patterns
PEC Zwolle vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden
Strong SignalGeneral Analysis
DED·2026-10-11·High Alignment: 73/100
Recent form
PEC Zwolle form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L.
Home goals (last 5): 0, 0, 2, 1, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 3, 2, 1, 2
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between PEC Zwolle and SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden, 2 of the last 2 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 2 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
PEC Zwolle have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 4/5.
Why
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden generate stronger attacking returns. PEC Zwolle's defensive record is less reliable. Both teams frequently exceed the goal threshold. Data points converge clearly across all measured sources. This creates strong alignment across the available data.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden stronger
H2H signal → no dominant pattern, but overall alignment remains consistent
Goal trends → support the signal
Form, head-to-head, and goal trends converge on a consistent reading.
Key insight
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates

Moderate Signal Matches (5)

Como 1907 vs AS Roma
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
SA·2026-10-11·Moderate Alignment: 64/100
Form: Como 1907: 4W-0D-1L | AS Roma: 3W-2D-0L
H2H: 2 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 4 BTTS
Goals: Como 1907: 4/5 over 2.5 | AS Roma: 3/5 over 2.5
Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This creates only moderate alignment.
Strong form from Como 1907 pairs with above-average goal production
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs AJ Auxerre
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
FL1·2026-10-11·Moderate Alignment: 63/100
Form: Stade Rennais FC 1901: 3W-1D-1L | AJ Auxerre: 2W-0D-3L
H2H: 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Stade Rennais FC 1901: 4/5 over 2.5 | AJ Auxerre: 4/5 over 2.5
Stade Rennais FC 1901 hold a clear form advantage over AJ Auxerre. AJ Auxerre concede at a higher rate. Both sides regularly produce matches above the goal threshold. Signals partially align but with notable inconsistencies. This means the signal should be treated with moderate confidence.
Stade Rennais FC 1901's form advantage is reinforced by historical matchup patterns
OGC Nice vs RC Strasbourg Alsace
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
FL1·2026-10-11·Moderate Alignment: 54/100
Form: OGC Nice: 1W-2D-2L | RC Strasbourg Alsace: 2W-1D-2L
H2H: 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, 4 of 4 BTTS
Goals: OGC Nice: 2/5 over 2.5 | RC Strasbourg Alsace: 4/5 over 2.5
RC Strasbourg Alsace's offensive output is more reliable. RC Strasbourg Alsace concede at a higher rate. Data shows mixed alignment across indicators. This means the signal should be treated with moderate confidence.
RC Strasbourg Alsace's form advantage is reinforced by historical matchup patterns
Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
PPL·2026-10-11·Moderate Alignment: 54/100
Form: Rio Ave FC: 1W-1D-3L | CD Nacional: 0W-0D-5L
H2H: 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, 3 of 4 BTTS
Goals: Rio Ave FC: 3/5 over 2.5 | CD Nacional: 3/5 over 2.5
Rio Ave FC show stronger recent form than CD Nacional. Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Form and head-to-head data both support Rio Ave FC
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
BL1·2026-10-11·Moderate Alignment: 54/100
Form: SC Freiburg: 4W-1D-0L | FC Schalke 04: 1W-2D-1L
H2H: 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 5 BTTS
Goals: SC Freiburg: 4/5 over 2.5 | FC Schalke 04: 2/4 over 2.5
SC Freiburg show stronger recent form than FC Schalke 04. SC Freiburg generate stronger attacking returns. Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Form and head-to-head data both support SC Freiburg
Low Signal Matches (9)Expand to view

These matches show low reliability signals. Treat with caution.

Liverpool FC vs Manchester City FC
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
PL·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 33/100
Form: Liverpool FC: 3W-2D-0L | Manchester City FC: 5W-0D-0L
H2H: 2 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 4 BTTS
Goals: Liverpool FC: 2/5 over 2.5 | Manchester City FC: 2/5 over 2.5
Manchester City FC outperform Liverpool FC in recent results. Manchester City FC produce more attacking output per match. The available data does not produce a coherent pattern. This weakens confidence in the observed direction.
Only Manchester City FC's recent results provide a directional signal, with limited supporting evidence
ES Troyes AC vs Olympique de Marseille
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
FL1·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 33/100
Form: ES Troyes AC: 1W-1D-3L | Olympique de Marseille: 1W-0D-4L
H2H: 1 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 4 BTTS
Goals: ES Troyes AC: 2/5 over 2.5 | Olympique de Marseille: 3/5 over 2.5
Olympique de Marseille produce more attacking output per match. ES Troyes AC allow more goals per match on average. The available data does not produce a coherent pattern. This weakens confidence in the observed direction.
Weak form from ES Troyes AC pairs with above-average goal production
Southampton FC vs Portsmouth FC
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
ELC·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 32/100
Form: Southampton FC: 2W-2D-1L | Portsmouth FC: 1W-2D-2L
H2H: 0 of last 2 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 2 BTTS
Goals: Southampton FC: 3/5 over 2.5 | Portsmouth FC: 2/5 over 2.5
Southampton FC show weaker recent form than Portsmouth FC. Southampton FC generate weaker attacking returns. Indicators diverge, giving low overall alignment. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight.
Southampton FC's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates
US Lecce vs Bologna FC 1909
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
SA·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 30/100
Form: US Lecce: 2W-0D-3L | Bologna FC 1909: 0W-2D-3L
H2H: 2 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 5 BTTS
Goals: US Lecce: 3/5 over 2.5 | Bologna FC 1909: 1/5 over 2.5
US Lecce hold a clear form advantage over Bologna FC 1909. US Lecce concede at a higher rate. Signals do not align consistently, resulting in low alignment. This reduces reliability of the signal.
US Lecce stands out on form alone, but no other indicator confirms the edge
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs RC Deportivo La Coruña
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 30/100
Form: Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 3W-1D-1L | RC Deportivo La Coruña: 2W-2D-1L
Goals: Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 4/5 over 2.5 | RC Deportivo La Coruña: 2/5 over 2.5
The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This reduces reliability of the signal. Current goal rates are high but head-to-head meetings do not reflect this
Real Sociedad de Fútbol's consistency and high goal frequency reinforce each other
Crystal Palace FC vs Nottingham Forest FC
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
PL·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 23/100
Form: Crystal Palace FC: 1W-1D-3L | Nottingham Forest FC: 1W-2D-2L
H2H: 0 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 4 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Crystal Palace FC: 3/5 over 2.5 | Nottingham Forest FC: 2/5 over 2.5
Crystal Palace FC's defensive record is less unreliable. Indicators diverge, giving low overall alignment. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight.
Nottingham Forest FC's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates
Real Betis Balompié vs CA Osasuna
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 23/100
Form: Real Betis Balompié: 4W-1D-0L | CA Osasuna: 1W-1D-3L
H2H: 1 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 3 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Real Betis Balompié: 2/5 over 2.5 | CA Osasuna: 2/5 over 2.5
Real Betis Balompié hold a clear form advantage over CA Osasuna. Real Betis Balompié's offensive output is more unreliable. CA Osasuna concede at a higher rate. Signals do not align consistently, resulting in low alignment. This reduces reliability of the signal.
Real Betis Balompié stands out on form alone, but no other indicator confirms the edge
Hull City AFC vs Everton FC
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
PL·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 20/100
Form: Hull City AFC: 2W-2D-1L | Everton FC: 2W-3D-0L
Goals: Hull City AFC: 2/5 over 2.5 | Everton FC: 1/5 over 2.5
Signals do not align consistently, resulting in low alignment. This reduces reliability of the signal.
Everton FC stands out on form alone, but no other indicator confirms the edge
Elche CF vs RC Celta de Vigo
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-10-11·Low Alignment: 17/100
Form: Elche CF: 1W-1D-3L | RC Celta de Vigo: 1W-3D-1L
H2H: 2 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Elche CF: 4/5 over 2.5 | RC Celta de Vigo: 1/5 over 2.5
Elche CF generate weaker attacking returns. Elche CF's defensive record is less unreliable. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight. Form and historical data point in different directions
RC Celta de Vigo's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates

How to interpret these signals

Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.