Goalysis
2026-09-15

Football Analysis – 2026-09-15

Daily football match analysis for 2026-09-15 with signal scores and risk flags.

Introduction

Football match analysis for 2026-09-15 using Goalysis signals. Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.

Top Matches Today (4)

Elche CF vs Real Madrid CF
Strong SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-09-15·High Alignment: 70/100
Recent form
Elche CF form (last 5): 0W-2D-3L. Real Madrid CF form (last 5): 4W-0D-1L.
Home goals (last 5): 1, 2, 2, 0, 1 · Away goals (last 5): 4, 2, 0, 4, 4
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Elche CF and Real Madrid CF, 5 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 3 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Elche CF have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 4 of those games. Real Madrid CF show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.
Why
Real Madrid CF outperform Elche CF in recent results. Real Madrid CF produce more attacking output per match. Elche CF allow more goals per match on average. The available signals align consistently, supporting a high alignment score. This confirms high confidence in the observed pattern.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Real Madrid CF stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Multiple independent sources confirm the same direction.
Key insight
Real Madrid CF's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
AFC Ajax vs Willem II Tilburg
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
DED·2026-09-15·Moderate Alignment: 63/100
Recent form
AFC Ajax form (last 5): 3W-1D-1L. Willem II Tilburg form (last 5): 0W-2D-3L.
Home goals (last 5): 5, 1, 4, 2, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 0, 2, 1, 1
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between AFC Ajax and Willem II Tilburg, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
AFC Ajax have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 3 of those games. Willem II Tilburg show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 4/5.
Why
AFC Ajax outperform Willem II Tilburg in recent results. AFC Ajax produce more attacking output per match. Willem II Tilburg allow more goals per match on average. Goal-heavy fixtures are common for both teams. Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This creates only moderate alignment.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → AFC Ajax stronger
H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Signals partially align, with some inconsistency.
Key insight
AFC Ajax's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
Middlesbrough FC vs Millwall FC
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
ELC·2026-09-15·Moderate Alignment: 63/100
Recent form
Middlesbrough FC form (last 5): 3W-1D-1L. Millwall FC form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L.
Home goals (last 5): 4, 1, 1, 3, 1 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 4, 0, 1, 3
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Middlesbrough FC and Millwall FC, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Middlesbrough FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 4 of those games. Millwall FC show 5/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 2/5.
Why
Middlesbrough FC outperform Millwall FC in recent results. Millwall FC allow more goals per match on average. Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This creates only moderate alignment.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Middlesbrough FC stronger
H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Signals partially align, with some inconsistency.
Key insight
Middlesbrough FC's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Sevilla FC
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-09-16·Moderate Alignment: 50/100Tomorrow
Recent form
RC Deportivo La Coruña form (last 5): 2W-3D-0L. Sevilla FC form (last 5): 3W-1D-1L.
Home goals (last 5): 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 1, 1, 3, 2
Head-to-head
No recent finished head-to-head sample was available.
Goal trends
RC Deportivo La Coruña have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 5 of those games. Sevilla FC show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 4/5.
Why
Signals partially align but with notable inconsistencies. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Sevilla FC stronger
H2H signal → no historical data available
Goal trends → are inconclusive
Some indicators agree while others diverge.
Key insight
Sevilla FC's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates

Moderate Signal Matches (2)

Botafogo FR vs Grêmio FBPA
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
BSA·2026-09-16·Moderate Alignment: 43/100Tomorrow
Form: Botafogo FR: 0W-2D-3L | Grêmio FBPA: 1W-0D-4L
H2H: 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 4 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Botafogo FR: 2/5 over 2.5 | Grêmio FBPA: 3/5 over 2.5
Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Form and head-to-head data both support Grêmio FBPA
Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia CF
Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis
PD·2026-09-15·Moderate Alignment: 40/100
Form: Deportivo Alavés: 3W-1D-1L | Valencia CF: 0W-1D-4L
H2H: 2 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 4 BTTS
Goals: Deportivo Alavés: 3/5 over 2.5 | Valencia CF: 2/5 over 2.5
Deportivo Alavés hold a clear form advantage over Valencia CF. Deportivo Alavés's offensive output is more reliable. Valencia CF concede at a higher rate. Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This means the signal should be treated with moderate confidence.
Deportivo Alavés's consistency and high goal frequency reinforce each other
Low Signal Matches (3)Expand to view

These matches show low reliability signals. Treat with caution.

CA Platense vs Fluminense FC
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
CLI·2026-09-15·Low Alignment: 35/100
Form: CA Platense: 2W-1D-2L | Fluminense FC: 3W-1D-1L
H2H: 0 of last 1 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 1 BTTS
Goals: CA Platense: 2/5 over 2.5 | Fluminense FC: 3/5 over 2.5
Fluminense FC hold a clear form advantage over CA Platense. CA Platense concede at a higher rate. Signals do not align consistently, resulting in low alignment. This reduces reliability of the signal.
Fluminense FC's consistency and high goal frequency reinforce each other
Bristol City FC vs Lincoln City FC
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
ELC·2026-09-15·Low Alignment: 30/100
Form: Bristol City FC: 3W-1D-1L | Lincoln City FC: 2W-2D-1L
Goals: Bristol City FC: 5/5 over 2.5 | Lincoln City FC: 1/5 over 2.5
Bristol City FC produce more attacking output per match. Bristol City FC allow more goals per match on average. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This weakens confidence in the observed direction. Form and historical data point in different directions
Weak form from Bristol City FC pairs with above-average goal production
LDU de Quito vs SE Palmeiras
Weak SignalGeneral Analysis
CLI·2026-09-16·Low Alignment: 28/100Tomorrow
Form: LDU de Quito: 3W-1D-1L | SE Palmeiras: 3W-2D-0L
H2H: 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 3 BTTS
Goals: LDU de Quito: 2/5 over 2.5 | SE Palmeiras: 1/5 over 2.5
LDU de Quito generate weaker attacking returns. LDU de Quito's defensive record is less unreliable. Indicators diverge, giving low overall alignment. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight.
SE Palmeiras's form advantage is the clearest signal but lacks corroboration from other sources

How to interpret these signals

Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.